Copper pares early gains, speed of rally worries
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Copper pares early gains, speed of rally worries UPDATED 03 Apr 2009 | 07:03  
Copper pares early gains, speed of rally worries

By Nick Trevethan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Shanghai copper edged lower on Friday, paring an early gains which sent prices to a five-month high, as the feel-good factor from a spate of positive data was tempered by concerns recent advances may be overdone.

Sentiment towards industrial raw material has improved dramatically in the past month or so as the tide of negative data from the world's top consumers seen in the second half of last year turns more neutral.

The latest ray of hope came from China, where the official purchasing managers' index for March rose to 52.4 from 49.0 in February, crossing back into expansionary territory in March for the first time since last September.

That reinforced positive sentiment from the Group of 20 summit in London, where world leaders announced a $500 billion injection for the International Monetary Fund, plus $250 billion in IMF Special Drawing Rights and $250 billion to boost trade.

"The G20 came out with positive news. Everyone expected lots of talk, but to get 20 ministers to agree on something is nothing short of amazing, and it clears the way for a rebound in sentiment," Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services, said.

Shanghai copper for June delivery fell 0.4 percent to 34,210 yuan a tonne at midday, but earlier touched 34,680 yuan, its highest since October.

"We had some very strong PMI data today and that will keep sentiment supported. The domestic market is very active and spot material remains tight, but buyers are little worried about the steep rises in the past few weeks," a dealer in Shanghai said.

Shanghai copper has jumped 40 percent since late January.

"There has been a shift in the last few days towards accepting prices around 35,000 yuan but towards 36,000 yuan is still a bit rich."

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange, dipped $55 to $4,115, having touched a five-month peak at $4,187.50 on Thursday. Prices are up around 2 percent this week in London and 3 percent in Shanghai.

"Copper is down a little today, but remember prices have risen nearly 50 percent from the lows. After that kind of rally we should expect a pause as people weigh whether the economic outlook supports the rise in prices," said CBS' Barratt.

He added the market would make that decision in the next few weeks as the reporting season gets under way.

Market attention is shifting to Shanghai inventories where traders said strong nearby prices suggested another decrease was on the cards when the data is released on Friday.

But talk in the eastern Chinese city is that a warehousing facility shared by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the State Reserves Bureau took delivery of around 10,000 tonnes of metal on Thursday.

"It's very tough to read the stocks data. The change in exchange stocks will depend on how much of the metal we are hearing about goes into SRB stores and how much goes onto the exchange," the Shanghai dealer said.

Aluminium fell $13 to $1,420. On Thursday prices jumped 3.5 percent, lifted by a 775 tonne decline in stocks from above 3.47 million tonnes. Hidden in the aggregate number were 6,825 tonnes of material leaving the exchange, which was mostly offset by inflows of 6,050. Cancelled warrants fell to 88,275 tonnes from 92,675.

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